NP View: Doug Ford leads the way on how to negotiate with Trump

Following Donald Trump’s re-election, there are serious questions about whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can repair his relationship with a notoriously vindictive man who he’s spent years denigrating. This is why we were pleased to see Ontario Premier Doug Ford recognizing that the political calculus has changed.

On Tuesday, Ford noted that Mexico is being used as a “backdoor for Chinese cars, auto parts and other products into Canadian and American markets.” If Mexico won’t take action by, “at the very least, matching Canadian and American tariffs on Chinese imports,” Ford argued we should “prioritize the closest economic partnership on earth by directly negotiating a bilateral U.S.-Canada free trade agreement that puts U.S. and Canadian workers first.”

This is similar to rhetoric being espoused by Trump. On the campaign trail, Trump criticized China’s use of Mexican auto parts plants as a means of bypassing trade restrictions and gaining a foothold in the North American market, and threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200 per cent on Mexican vehicles unless the country takes action to put a stop to the practice.

There’s no doubt that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), have been hugely beneficial to the Canadian economy. Ideally, the highly integrated North American free trade zone is will continue to be in place for years to come.

But if Trump is willing to throw out CUSMA over China using Mexico as a backdoor into the North American market, Canada needs to be willing to play ball — and to recognize, as Ford said, that preserving our trading relationship with the U.S. is far more important than ensuring Mexico remains in the agreement.

This, it should be noted, is exactly what Ford suggested: not that Mexico should be booted from CUSMA, but that if it doesn’t start taking the threat posed by China seriously, as Trump has demanded, Canada and the U.S. may have to go it alone.

In all likelihood, Chinese automakers will see the writing on the wall and refrain from making further investments in Mexico, at least for the next four years. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration will also realize that Chinese investment would not make up for the losses the country would suffer if it were no longer part of CUSMA.

The only question is how much pain all parties will have to endure to arrive at that eventuality. And in this regard, following Ford’s lead of speaking Trump’s language and engaging in similar negotiating tactics would seem like the politically clever move.

Unfortunately, this is not the type of deft political manoeuvring we can expect from Justin Trudeau. Within days of Trump’s election, the Liberals reconstituted a defunct cabinet committee on U.S.-Canada relations, in order to give the impression that Ottawa is looking to get ahead of the situation. But the bad blood and significant policy differences between the two leaders threatens to derail our relationship with our most important trading partner.

One of those big differences is how they view China. Trump was one of the first world leaders to criticize Beijing for its aggressive trade practices and economic warfare. Trudeau, on the other hand, has spent the past decade cozying up to China. Even repeat warnings by our intelligence agencies that the Communists were actively interfering in our elections have not been enough for him to take the China threat seriously.

Ford clearly understands that by publicly recognizing that Beijing is not a benevolent actor and that future trade negotiations may involve tough choices, Canada and Mexico would be seen as allies in future negotiations with the Trump administration, rather than adversaries. Ford, of course, can only do so much, since his government does not have control over international trade agreements. Yet as premier of the province that’s home to the vast majority of Canada’s automotive sector, Ford’s voice carries weight.

More importantly, he’s demonstrating that at least some Canadian politicians are capable of putting any personal differences they may have with Donald Trump aside to focus on finding mutually beneficial solutions.

The relationship between Canada and the U.S. may be strained over the next year, but the prospect of a new Conservative government in 2025 and provincial premiers who are able to find common ground with the new administration offer hope for the future of our bilateral relationship. Trump’s influence may even prove to be the impetus Canada needs to up its game on defence and start taking the threat posed by adversaries like China seriously.

National Post